A newly surfaced U.S. intelligence assessment has cast serious doubt on claims by President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that recent U.S.-led strikes on Iran completely obliterated the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.
According to two sources familiar with the report issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) on Monday, Iran’s nuclear capabilities were significantly damaged but not destroyed. The report concludes that Iran’s ability to enrich uranium a critical step in producing a nuclear weapon remains largely intact, and that its key nuclear infrastructure, particularly at the Fordo underground facility, survived the barrage of U.S. bunker-buster bombs.
The assessment contradicts Trump’s earlier assertion that “Iran’s nuclear sites were totally destroyed” and Netanyahu’s televised claim that Israel had brought Iran’s program “to ruin.”
Key Findings From the DIA Report
The DIA’s early assessment, according to the sources who spoke on condition of anonymity, highlights the following:
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Partial Damage to Key Sites: While strikes on facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordo did cause significant disruption, they fell short of total destruction. At Fordo, one of Iran’s most fortified uranium enrichment plants, only the entrance and some above-ground structures were damaged.
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Uranium and Equipment Survived: Iran reportedly relocated some of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium prior to the attacks. Centrifuges necessary for further enrichment also survived in part, according to intelligence gathered before and after the strikes.
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Continued Weaponization Risk: Though Iran has not officially pursued a nuclear weapon, analysts warn that with its remaining equipment and material, the country retains the technical capability to reconstitute a covert weapons program.
White House and Israeli Pushback
The White House swiftly rejected the report, calling it “flat-out wrong.” Speaking at the NATO summit in the Netherlands, Trump reiterated, “It was obliteration, and you’ll see that.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dismissed the intelligence findings as “preliminary” and announced an internal probe into the leak.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio was even more blunt, branding those who leaked the report as “professional stabbers.” The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the CIA declined to comment.
Israeli officials have not released their own intelligence estimates, though Netanyahu maintains that the joint Israeli-American campaign has effectively neutralized Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Analysis from Experts and Satellite Imagery
External analysts and satellite imagery reviewed by Maxar Technologies suggest that Iran may have preemptively sealed entrances to key underground facilities and possibly relocated enriched uranium and other equipment.
Stephen Wood, a senior director at Maxar, noted that trucks and bulldozers were visible near Fordo in the days leading up to the airstrikes. “We believe some of the trucks were carrying dirt to seal tunnel entrances,” he said, but others could have been used to evacuate uranium.
Eric Brewer, a former U.S. intelligence analyst and deputy vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, added that Iran could rebuild a covert enrichment facility “with a small footprint” and rapidly convert existing stockpiles to weapons-grade levels.
Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association warned that if Iran had indeed moved its IR-6 centrifuges more advanced than older models it retained “a pretty solid foundation for a reconstituted program.”
A Fragile Moment
The revelations have sparked fresh debate in Washington over the true effectiveness of the strikes and the long-term implications for non-proliferation efforts.
Vice President JD Vance defended the administration’s narrative, stating that even if Iran retained uranium enriched to 60%, “they don’t have the ability to convert that to a nuclear weapon that is mission success.”
The U.N. nuclear watchdog, IAEA, has confirmed that Iran holds enough material to build several bombs if it chose to pursue them. While Iran continues to insist its nuclear program is peaceful, the opaque status of its facilities and stockpiles leaves the international community on edge.
As of now, no further strikes have been confirmed, and efforts to resume nuclear talks remain uncertain. For observers and policymakers alike, the balance between military pressure and diplomatic restraint remains fragile — with the future of Iran’s nuclear capabilities still hanging in the balance.
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