Early voting is rising sharply across several key US states ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with significant increases in Texas, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio potentially signalling heightened voter engagement in contests that could determine control of the US Senate.<\/p>\n
An analysis of early voting data by The Associated Press (AP), covering ballots cast through Tuesday, shows that turnout in several competitive states has outpaced levels recorded at the same stage of the 2022 midterm elections, as Democrats seek to challenge Republican-held Senate seats.<\/p>\n
Texas has recorded a 74 per cent increase in early voting compared with 2022, while Kansas has more than doubled its early ballot count. Maine, North Carolina and Ohio have also registered increases of more than 30 per cent in combined early in-person and mail voting.<\/p>\n
The figures offer an indication of voter enthusiasm ahead of Election Day, although early voting numbers alone do not establish which party is benefiting from the increase.<\/p>\n
More than 13 million Americans have already cast ballots through early in-person voting and mail-in voting, compared with approximately nine million at the same point in the 2022 midterm election cycle.<\/p>\n
The increase partly reflects changes in voting arrangements, including additional states expanding early voting opportunities and improvements in the availability of voting data since the previous midterm elections.<\/p>\n
The political environment is also markedly different from 2022. Republicans currently control the White House and both chambers of Congress, while dissatisfaction over President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the high cost of living and rising fuel prices linked to the Iran war has created challenges for the governing party.<\/p>\n
Midterm elections have historically tended to favour the party outside the White House, giving Democrats an opportunity to capitalise on voter dissatisfaction and contest seats in states that have traditionally leaned Republican.<\/p>\n
Republicans currently hold a 53\u201347 majority in the US Senate, leaving Democrats with a difficult path to securing control of the chamber.<\/p>\n
Kansas has emerged as one of the states experiencing the strongest increase in early voting. More than 55,000 people had cast ballots by the time of the AP analysis, compared with approximately 27,000 at the same stage of the 2022 election cycle.<\/p>\n
The increase comes amid a competitive Senate contest between Republican incumbent Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton.<\/p>\n
Republicans have reportedly redirected significant campaign resources towards Kansas, including nearly $12 million in additional spending to support Marshall in a state Trump won by 16 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.<\/p>\n
Trump also held a rally in Kansas earlier in the week, underscoring the importance Republicans have attached to retaining the seat.<\/p>\n
The state presents a significant test for Democrats, who are attempting to make inroads in traditionally Republican territory while Republicans seek to protect their Senate majority.<\/p>\n
Texas has recorded one of the largest increases in early voting, with nearly one million ballots cast at the comparable point in the election cycle, up from approximately 550,000 in 2022.<\/p>\n
The surge comes as Democratic candidate James Talarico and Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton compete for the Senate seat currently held by Republican Senator John Cornyn.<\/p>\n
Paxton defeated Cornyn in a Republican primary runoff with Trump’s endorsement. However, the attorney general has faced political scrutiny over corruption allegations and his impeachment by the Texas Legislature, although he was subsequently acquitted.<\/p>\n
Democrats are seeking to capitalise on the contest to win statewide office in Texas for the first time in more than three decades.<\/p>\n
The state’s gubernatorial race is also attracting attention, with Republican Governor Greg Abbott facing Democratic state lawmaker Gina Hinojosa.<\/p>\n
Texas does not report its early voting totals by party registration in the data analysed, making it difficult to determine which party is driving the increase.<\/p>\n
Ohio has also experienced a substantial rise in early voting, with approximately 156,000 more ballots cast than at the same point in 2022, representing an increase of around 30 per cent.<\/p>\n
The state is hosting competitive contests for the US Senate, House of Representatives and governor, drawing significant campaign attention and substantial financial investment.<\/p>\n
According to AdImpact, total spending on the Ohio Senate race is expected to approach $500 million.<\/p>\n
Changes to Ohio’s voting laws may also be influencing the figures. The state has eliminated its grace period for receiving mail ballots, requiring voters to ensure their ballots arrive earlier than under the previous rules.<\/p>\n
In Maine, early voting has increased by 39 per cent compared with the equivalent point in the 2022 midterm election.<\/p>\n
The state is preparing for a closely watched Senate contest between five-term Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson. Democrats view the race as an opportunity to gain a seat in a state where the outcome could have implications for the balance of power in Washington.<\/p>\n
North Carolina has likewise recorded an increase of more than 30 per cent in early in-person and mail voting, although Republicans have recently adjusted their campaign spending in the state as they reassess their electoral priorities.<\/p>\n
Democrats entered the 2026 election cycle facing a challenging Senate map, with several competitive seats to defend and relatively few straightforward opportunities to defeat Republican incumbents.<\/p>\n
However, changing political conditions have encouraged the party to expand its ambitions into states that Trump carried in 2024.<\/p>\n
Concerns over the economy, tariffs and fuel prices have become prominent political issues, creating opportunities for Democratic candidates to challenge Republicans in races that might otherwise have been considered difficult to win.<\/p>\n
The early voting figures suggest that several of these contests are attracting considerable public participation. However, higher turnout does not automatically translate into a Democratic advantage, particularly where party registration, candidate preference and the composition of the early electorate vary from state to state.<\/p>\n
Not every competitive state has experienced a significant increase in early voting.<\/p>\n
Michigan and Georgia, where Democrats are defending Senate seats, have recorded high early ballot totals that remain broadly similar to those seen at the same stage in 2022.<\/p>\n
Both states experienced record midterm participation that year. Michigan’s election featured reproductive rights as a major issue, while Georgia hosted a highly competitive Senate contest.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Iowa has recorded an approximately 6 per cent decline in early voting compared with the equivalent period in 2022.<\/p>\n
Iowa is hosting competitive contests for governor, the US Senate and three of its four House seats, despite its record of supporting Trump in three consecutive presidential elections.<\/p>\n
The decline highlights the uneven nature of early voting across the country and the difficulty of drawing nationwide conclusions from individual state figures.<\/p>\n
With Election Day approaching, the latest figures point to heightened participation in several states central to the fight for Senate control.<\/p>\n
The increases in Texas, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio could reflect competitive races, greater political engagement or changes in voting practices. Determining whether they favour Democrats or Republicans will require further analysis of the electorate and, ultimately, the election results.<\/p>\n
For both parties, the central challenge is converting voter interest into actual support at the ballot box.<\/p>\n
The outcome of the midterm elections will determine whether Republicans retain their congressional majorities or Democrats make significant gains, potentially reshaping the political landscape for the remainder of Trump’s presidency.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Early voting is rising sharply across several key US states ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with significant increases in Texas, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio potentially signalling heightened voter engagement in contests that could determine control of the US Senate. An analysis of early voting data by The Associated Press (AP), covering ballots<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":15794,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_3558452337540614_100649324928663":"","twitter_1160854738579181570_1160854738579181570":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,1,34],"tags":[2477,3486,2475,970,3705,3707,3709,3710,3708,2474,3706,3622,3704,3711],"class_list":["post-15793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-africa","category-general-news","category-elections-politics","tag-2026-elections","tag-american-politics","tag-democratic-party","tag-donald-trump","tag-early-voting","tag-kansas-elections","tag-maine-elections","tag-north-carolina-elections","tag-ohio-elections","tag-republican-party","tag-texas-elections","tag-us-midterm-elections","tag-us-senate","tag-voter-turnout"],"yoast_head":"\n